The Solar Break-Even Map

We modelled solar production for all 50 states and Washington DC, joined it to current utility rates and installed costs, and computed how long a typical system takes to pay for itself in each one. The result contradicts the way almost every solar article frames this question.

Headline finding: across all 51 jurisdictions, how sunny a state is explains about 4% of the variation in solar payback. Its electricity rate explains about 57%. Your utility bill is roughly fourteen times more predictive than your weather.

What actually predicts payback

We tested each input against the payback period across all 51 jurisdictions:

Negative correlation means higher values shorten payback. The rate figure is strong and unambiguous. The sunshine figure is close to noise.

Three results that shouldn't happen — but do

New York beats Arizona

Arizona is the second-sunniest state in the country, producing 1,755 kWh per kW installed each year against New York's 1,291 — a 36% advantage. Arizona also has cheaper installs, $2.30/W against $2.76/W.

New York still wins: 7.1 years to Arizona's 8.6. New Yorkers pay 29.93¢/kWh; Arizonans pay 15.23¢. Every kilowatt-hour a New York system offsets is worth nearly twice as much.

The sunniest state in America ranks 26th

New Mexico tops the production table at 1,779 kWh/kW/year. Its payback is 10.7 years — dead median, 26th of 51. At 14.12¢/kWh, the sunshine has nothing valuable to offset.

The worst payback in America gets above-average sun

Idaho produces 1,456 kWh/kW/year, comfortably above the 51-jurisdiction mean of 1,396. It also has the cheapest residential electricity in the country at 12.35¢/kWh and installs running $3.04/W. Payback: 16.9 years, the slowest anywhere.

Want your actual number? The table gives you your state's average. Your roof, shading and utility plan move it. Get a free quote comparison →

Every state, ranked

A 12 kW system — the typical American home install — at each state's own production, electricity rate and installed cost. Break-even rate is what you'd need to pay per kilowatt-hour for a 10-year payback: if your bill is above it, you beat 10 years.

Click any column heading to re-sort.

* EnergySage publishes no state-level installed cost for Alaska, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia or Wyoming. Those seven use the national average of $2.60/W, so treat their payback figures as less certain than the rest.

How to read this for your own house

1. Find your state's break-even rate in the table.
2. Find your actual rate on your utility bill — the total divided by kilowatt-hours used, not the advertised supply rate.
3. Compare. Above the break-even figure, you beat a 10-year payback. Below it, you don't — and the further below, the longer it takes.

Two things this deliberately leaves out, both of which favour solar: electricity prices have risen faster than inflation since 2022, and none of these figures assume any rate escalation. State and utility incentives are also excluded — see 2026 solar incentives for what still exists where you live.

And one that works against it: how your utility credits exported power can add years to these numbers where net metering has been cut back.

Methodology

Every figure is computed from published data. Nothing here is an estimate we invented.

• Production. NLR (formerly NREL) PVWatts v8 API, run identically for every state: 1 kW nameplate, 180° azimuth, 20° tilt, fixed roof mount, 14% system losses. Weather from NSRDB PSM V3 GOES tmy-2020. Each state uses its largest city.
• Electricity rates. EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A, residential sector, May 2026.
• Installed cost. EnergySage published state-level $/W before incentives, July 2026.
• Payback. (cost per watt × 12,000) ÷ (production per kW × 12 × rate). Simple payback, no discounting.
• Break-even rate. The rate at which that payback equals exactly 10 years.

Limitations, stated plainly

• Largest city, not state average. Production uses one representative city per state. Large states vary internally — Sacramento models 3.7% below Los Angeles, and Texas and California will differ more by region than this table shows.
• Rates are a single month. May 2026, not a twelve-month average. Electricity prices are seasonal.
• Seven states use a national cost average (marked with an asterisk above).
• Alabama's $3.81/W is an outlier — the highest published in the country, and the single reason Alabama lands at 16.6 years. Worth treating with caution.
• No incentives, no escalation, no degradation. State rebates would shorten payback; panel degradation of roughly half a percent a year would lengthen it slightly.
• No federal tax credit. The 30% Section 25D credit expired December 31, 2025. These are real 2026 out-of-pocket costs. See what's left of the solar tax credit.

Anyone is welcome to reproduce, check or reuse this with attribution.

Frequently asked questions

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